Net Zero by 2050: Technology for a Changing Climate

Ordering Information
This book is under development. The information provided here is taken from the current draft.
The phrase ‘Net Zero by 2050’ has been adopted by many organizations: governments, companies and non-profits. It means that the organization in question aims to have net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by the year 2050.It also describes the technologies that are used to achieve this difficult goal. This book describes on realistic responses, with a focus on technology and the role of commercial companies and industry.
The emphasis throughout the book is on what can be realistically achieved, given short amount of time available and the huge investments of time, money and resources that will be required. For this reason each chapter includes a section entitled ‘Realities’. Each chapter also includes an assessment of that technology’s status using a simple Phase-Gate diagram.
The book is organized into the following eighteen chapters.
Chapter 1: Net Zero: An Opportunity
This first chapter describes the concept of ‘Net Zero’ — what it is and why it matters.
Governments around the world are failing to meet the ambitious goals that they have set for themselves. However, the situation does provide an opportunity for companies, including those in the energy and process industries, to provide much-needed leadership.
The chapter shows that climate change is not an isolated issue — it links in complex ways to many other issues, including resource depletion, population increase and excess debt.
It is available as a stand-alone ebook.
Follow the links to learn more about each section.
Summary
The Ebook Series
Three Questions
Need for Action
Response
Thesis / Antithesis / Synthesis
Thesis
Antithesis
Synthesis
The Precautionary Principle
Business Imagination
Technology
Example: Electric Vehicles
Who Will Respond?
Governments
Individuals / Small Groups
Business and Industry
Selling Net Zero
Transition Steps
Conclusions
Chapter 2: An Age of Limits
In this ebook we provide an overview of the climate crisis — what it is, what is causing it, and what the consequences may be. (The stress is on the word ‘overview’; there are many ebooks, web sites and reports that explain the topic in much greater detail.) We also show how the climate issues are part of a broader set of problems and predicaments that interact with one another in complex and difficult-to-understand ways. Climate change is not a stand-alone topic; instead, it is just one component of an overall energy predicament and ‘Age of Limits’ predicament.
The ebook starts with a description of the ‘300-Year Party’ — the short period of time in which we were able to build an industrial civilization on a foundation of fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. The ebook then provides a description of the work of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), including its latest Sixth Assessment reports. The role of the COPs (Conference of the Parties) is also discussed. An overview of the ‘Limits to Growth’ study is provided.
Summary
The Three Hundred Year Party
Peak Forests
The Atmospheric Engine
The Industrial Revolution
The Church of Progress
Living Within the Biosphere
A Climate Change Review
Atmospheric Temperature
Not Just CO2
Committed Warming
Modeling Limitations
Models — Not Reality
Scientific Reticence
Tipping Points
Unanticipated Events
The IPCC
A Clunky Sentence
Key Reports
Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees
Physical Science Basis Report
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Report
Mitigation of Climate Change Report
Synthesis Report
Fact Sheet
Conferences of the Parties
COP21 — The Paris Agreement
Response to Paris
COP26
2030 Goals
A Clunky Sentence
An Age of Limits
Limits to Growth
End of Growth
Conclusions
Chapter 3: Energy
Abstract
Evaluation
Properties
Example — Steam to Diesel
Hydrocarbon Fuels
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
HSE
Health
Safety
Safety Diamonds
Environmental
HSE of Hydrocarbon/Fossil Fuels
An Energy Grid
A — Energy Source: Intermittent
B — Energy Source: Continuous
C — Storage
D — Electrolysis of Water
E — Hydrogen/Ammonia
F — Carbon Capture and Storage
G — Grid
H — Transportation
I — Industry
J — Biofuels
K — Refining
Reality Check
Alternative Energy
A Slow Transition
The Renewables Paradox
Energy Sectors
Energy Returned on Energy Invested
Transition Energy
Intermittency
Available
Dispatchable
Going First Subsidy
Efficiency and Resilience
Cost
Affordability
Non-Financial Resources
Communication
The Exponential Function
Who to Believe?
Responding to the Challenge
Government Responses
Engineering and Scale-Up
Realities
Example — Scale-Up of Nuclear Power
Project Management
Phase I — Concept
Phase II — Demonstrate
Phase III — Commercialize
Phase IV — Implement
The Business Opportunity
Avoiding the Kodak Moment
Adaptability
Disruptive Technologies
Chapter 4: Biofuels
The first alternative fuel to be considered is biofuel. One reason for going with it first is that we have used biofuels for many years — they are well established and well understood.
Abstract
Background
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Biomass Sources
Wood
Charcoal / Biochar
Ethanol
Biomass Conversion
Combustion
Gasification
Pyrolysis
Hydrothermal Liquefaction
Algae Biofuels
Plastics to Oil
Artificial Leaves
Chapter 5: Solar
Solar energy can be used in one of two ways. Its heat can be used directly, for example to heat water, or it can generate electricity in photo-voltaic cells.
Abstract
Background
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Shockley-Queisser Limit
Intermittency
Location and Seasonality
Space and Water Heating
Solar Cells
Photovoltaic Effect
Solar Power System
Storing Power
Passive Solar Heat
Big Dish Solar
Deserts
Raw Materials
Chapter 6: Wind
Like solar, wind power is a proven source of energy that is commercially established.
Abstract
Background
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
The Betz Limit
Offshore Wind Power
Challenges
Capital Costs
Vortex Power
Chapter 7: Hydrogen and Ammonia
Hydrogen is the ultimate clean fuel. When it burns in air it creates just water vapor (along with trace amounts of nitrogen oxides). When compressed or liquefied it also has a high energy density. It is widely used as a chemical feedstock in industry, particularly refineries and chemical plants. Its use as a fuel to date has been limited, mostly due to difficulties with its handling and storage and its expense.
Ammonia is an important industrial chemical that is vital to the functioning of modern economies. It is widely used as a fertilizer, a refrigerant, for pollution control, and as a building block for many other chemicals, including explosives.
Abstract
Background
The Hydrogen Economy
An Abundant Supply
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Colors of Hydrogen
Manufacture of Hydrogen
Black/Brown Hydrogen
Blue Hydrogen
Green Hydrogen
Electrolysis / Pyrolysis
Alkaline-Water Electrolysis (AWE)
Proton-Exchange Membrane (PEM)
Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE)
Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis (AEM)
Methane Pyrolysis
Storage and Industrial Use
Storage
Transportation
Hydrogen as a Fuel
Combustion
Fuel Cells
Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers
Ammonia
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Safety Diamond
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Manufacture of Ammonia
Gen 0 — Traditional Process
Gen 1 — Blue Ammonia
Gen 2 — Green Ammonia
Gen 3 — Direct Manufacture
Storage and Transmission
Infrastructure
Hydrogen vs. Ammonia
The Nitrogen Cycle
Chapter 8: Nuclear
Nuclear power is a topic that arouses strong emotions in many people. The fact that nuclear energy was first used for military purposes is one reason for this reaction. People are particularly fearful of the long-term consequences to do with disposal of nuclear waste. After all, the fossil fuels are hydrocarbons. They had their origin in living organisms and their combustion products will eventually become part of the Earth’s overall life cycle. Such is not the case with nuclear technology. It is mysterious and difficult to understand.
Abstract
Background
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Safety Diamond
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Nuclear Power (Fission)
Unrealized Hopes
Safety
Risk and Nuclear Safety
Four Generations of Technology
Gen II
Reactor Types
Negative Learning Curve
Safety
Gen III
Gen IV
Molten Salt Reactors
Small Modular Reactors
Thorium Reactors
Nuclear / Renewables
Nuclear Fusion
Chapter 9: Hydroelectric and Ocean
In many ways hydroelectric power is an ideal source of energy. Water is stored behind a dam wall and then released in a controlled manner through a power plant. Once the facility is built, there are no emissions. Moreover, the power that it supplies is ‘always on’ — it is not intermittent.
Abstract
Background
Hydroelectric
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Tidal Power
HSE
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Ocean Energy
Wave Motion
Vortex Energy
Ocean Currents
Thermal Energy
Chapter 10: Geothermal
Abstract
Background
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environmental
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Overview
Natural Geothermal
Enhanced Geothermal
Heat Pumps
Closed Loop Systems
Steam / Binary
Chapter 11: Energy Storage
If society is to achieve the ‘Net Zero by 2050’ goal then wind and solar are going to make up a large fraction of the total energy supply mix. As has been frequently pointed out, attractive though these energy sources may be, they have important limitations. In particular, they have a low energy density, and they are intermittent. Given that the sun is not always shining, nor the wind blowing, these two sources supply energy only about 35% of the time, and that they may not supply that energy at the time that it is most needed.
Abstract
Background
Evaluation
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Types of Energy Storage
Gravity
Pumped Hydro
Weights
Hydrogen
Underground Storage
Hydrides
Nanotubes
Ammonia
Compressed Air
Liquid Air
Thermal Energy Storage
Steam
Molten Salt
Pumped Heat Electrical Storage
Batteries — Utility Scale
Lithium-ion Batteries
Solid State Batteries
Liquid Metal Batteries
Red-Ox
Thermal Energy
Thermochemical Energy
Ammonia
Flywheels
Heat
Chapter 12: Carbon Capture and Sequestration
The previous chapters have described means of generating energy without creating greenhouse gas emissions. Given the urgency of the climate crisis just switching to alternative energy sources is insufficient. It will also be necessary to implement carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies. These can either remove CO2 at the point of combustion or they can extract CO2 that is already in the atmosphere. The removed CO2 is then sequestered, i.e., stored in underground formations for the indefinite future.
Abstract
Background
Properties
HSE
Health
Safety
Environment
Energy Grid
Project Phase
Reality Check
Biological Capture: Phase I
Point Capture: Phase II
Direct Air Capture: Phase III
Sequestration: Phase III
Emergency Direct Air Capture
Natural CC&S
Nature’s CC&S
Ocean Carbon Cycle
Ocean Acidification
Ocean Stratification
Economics
CC&S Strategies
Biological Carbon Capture
Burning Biomass
Ocean Fertilization
Forestation
Point Capture
Pre-Combustion
Post-Combustion
Oxyfuel
“Dirty” Coal
Conventional Process
Allam Power Cycle
Direct Air Capture
Pellets
Liquid Solvent
Solid Absorbent
Synthetic Fuels
Sequestration
Oil Wells
Salt Caverns
Ocean Storage
Mineralization
Transportation of CO2
Rebound Effects
Products from CO2
EOR Oil Recovery
Petrochemicals
Cement
Fuel Oil from Plastics
Commercial Applications
Climeworks
Carbon Engineering
Blue Planet Systems
Charm Industrial
Global Thermostat
Infinitree
Skytree
New Technology
Chapter 13: Geoengineering
If our efforts to contain global warming are ineffective there will be increased interest in efforts to contain the damage. One of these efforts — carbon capture and sequestration — is already being applied on a small scale. Other options, such as putting reflectors in space, could have many unanticipated consequences. They also raise profound social and ethical concerns.
Abstract
Background
Reality Check
Ethics
Uncertainty
Unanticipated Consequences
Risks and Concerns
Ocean Acidification
Regional Impact
Air Quality
On-Going Commitment
Governance
Forestation
Solar Radiation Management
Space Reflectors
Surface Reflectors
Ground-Level Reflection
Ocean Mirror
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Clouds
Marine Cloud Brightening
Cloud Thinning
Ocean Seeding
Ocean Fertilization
Chapter 14: Transportation
Transportation — shipping, air travel, rail, roads — consumes about 28% of the energy used in the United States. Other activities such as cement and fertilizer production make major contributions to CO2 emissions but have a much lower profile. Therefore, it is useful to consider transportation as its own category because that is what the public sees. Transportation is the public face of Net Zero programs.
Abstract
Background
Electric Grid
Hydrogen
Ammonia
Direct Combustion
Ammonia Fuel Cells
Gas Turbines
Biofuels
Wind
Shipping
Ammonia
Hydrogen
Wind Power
Rail
High Speed Rail
Hyperloop
Road
Trams / Streetcars
Trolley Buses
Battery Electric Vehicles
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Range
Refueling Stations
Safety
Cost
Aviation
Hydrogen
Ammonia
Infrastructure
Chapter 15: Industry
Developing new sources of energy has ramifications throughout all parts of industry, not just in the direct generation of electrical and motive power.
Abstract
Example
Petrochemicals
Refining
Refinery Schematic
Refining Grid
Methanol
Steel
Cement
Chapter 16: Rules and Standards
Abstract
SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission)
EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
The European Union
The United Kingdom
Chapter 17: The Path Forward
Abstract
Evaluating the Alternatives
Global Scope
Biofuels
Solar
Wind
Hydrogen
Ammonia (fuel)
Nuclear Fission
Nuclear Fusion
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
Ocean Energy
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Geoengineering
Energy storage
Net Zero Scopes
Cost
Capital Cost
Energy Returned
Carbon Tax
Incremental Progress
Energy Grid of the Future
The Energy Companies
Localization
Industry
Stranded Assets
Non-Technology Responses
The Core Questions
Personal / Community
Agriculture
Political / Organizational
Technology
Redundancy and Resilience
Lean Operations
Adaptation
Professional Societies / Regulators
Planning for the Worst Case
Selling Net Zero
Standards and Regulations
Psychological Hurdles
Chapter 18: The Net Zero Professional
This chapter provides some thoughts as to how individuals can adopt a career path for a rapidly changing world.
Abstract
A Sense of Exile
Survival of the Adaptable
Professional Attributes
Basic Needs
Systems Thinking
Social Impact
Handling Uncertainty
Flexibility
Numeracy
Liberal Arts
Generalists and Experts
Technical Specialties
Project Management
Electrical Engineering
Chemical Engineering
Nuclear Engineering
Human Factors
Process Safety Management
Imagination
Performance-Based
Non-prescriptive
Participation
Involvement of Non-Professionals
Hazards Analysis
Systems Analysis
Chapters
- Net Zero: An Opportunity
- An Age of Limits
- Energy
- Biofuels
- Solar
- Wind
- Hydrogen and Ammonia
- Nuclear
- Hydroelectric and Ocean
- Geothermal
- Energy Storage
- Carbon Capture and Sequestration
- Geoengineering
- Transportation
- Industry
- Rules and Standards
- The Path Forward
- The Net Zero Professional